The International Labor Organization foresees a decrease in youth unemployment rates over the next few years, however it will only occur in developed economies.
Although the cause (in large part) is not due to improvements in the labor market of the latter, but rather to the fact that a large number of young people have stopped looking for work. These discouraged young people are not counted as unemployed.
It should be noted that, although the new forecasts show a gradual decrease in the youth unemployment rate in developed economies: from 17.5 percent this year to 15.6 percent in 2017, This figure is much higher than the 12.5 percent rate recorded in 2007, before the start of the crisis. The expected decrease in youth unemployment in the region of developed economies will not be enough to reduce the global rate, so in 2017 global youth unemployment will be 12.9 percent.
This table shows the forecasts in the oscillation of the percentages of youth unemployment, by regions of the Planet. We find that the economies of East Asia and Latin America will also be affected by the decline in exports to advanced economies, or that in North Africa and the Middle East, rates will remain above 25 percent over the next few years.
Young workers need support
Even in countries that register the first signs of job recovery and where new job opportunities arise, many unemployed young people have difficulty finding work.
This results in discouragement and an increase in “ni-ni” rates (they do not work, study or receive training) among young people, explained Ekkehard Ernst, head of the ILO Employment Trends Unit
The systems that offer job guarantees and give importance to training could help to get people looking for work out of the street and integrate them in useful activities, thus providing protection against future economic crises. According to a document prepared by the expert mentioned 'these types of guarantees for young people can have a very limited cost: less than 0.5 percent of GDP in European countries'.
In times of pressure on public finances, this can be perceived as another heavy burden, but will be lower than the additional costs that young people generate when they are unemployed for a long time, in addition to increasingly losing more contact with the labor market.
Wouldn't it be time to take action?
At its annual conference in June 2012, the ILO adopted a Resolution in favor of immediate, renewed and specific action aimed at addressing the youth unemployment crisis.
The Resolution proposes a set of proven and proven measures in five areas: macroeconomic policies, employability, labor market policies, development of youth entrepreneurship and rights. Stresses the need for balance, coherence and complementarity between political measures.
Governments and social partners are invited to:
Favor the growth with high employment coefficient and the creation of decent work through macroeconomic policies, employability, labor market policies and youth rights, and guarantee financial and budgetary sustainability.
Promote the macroeconomic policies and fiscal incentives that support employment, strengthen aggregate demand, improve access to financing and increase productive investments, taking into account the various economic situations of the countries.
Adopt specific and fiscally sustainable measures, such as counter-cyclical policies and interventions that stimulate demand, public employment programs, guarantee systems for young people, infrastructure programs with a high coefficient of labor, wages and training subsidies and other interventions in favor of youth employment. Such programs should guarantee equal treatment for young workers.
The value of the effort, the productive mentality, and the ability to adapt may help our young people, but to overcome discouragement they must be offered a socio-economic framework with a positive vision of the future.
